My god, What on earth are you doing here?
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Ok instead of lamenting on how poorly I predicted last weekend I'll post some last minute predictions before fridays numbers come out. Sigh too late for HSX and Ez's .... Short and Sweet Ummm what was opening oh yeah, Win a Date with Ted Hamilton $15M looks like a decent date flick and ads are not brutal... though what does that mean ;^) The Butterfly Effect starring everyones fav bad boy/tabloid fodder Ashton Kushner is also opening this weekend, I'm looking for a $14M opening. There you have it short and sweet. :) Will post rest of the predictions/actuals once I have some ZZZ's
Welcome to my world of lousy movie predictions, though I did ok on last weeks guesses. Missed out on just how poorly Chasing Liberty would open, $9M guess vs $6M actual. Other than that pretty much nailed Big Fish and My Baby's Daddy.
This weekend sees 3 new films hitting the cinema. Along Came Polly opening on 2984 screens and starring Ben Stiller, Jennifer Aniston along with Debra Messing looks to have the star power of all the openers. My caveat is the Televison ads. They don't look all that interesting or funny for a romantic comedy. I'll venture a $15M opening for the weekend. My surprise pick is Torque opening on 2563 screens, I'll venture this will do just as well as Along Came Polly for a neck and neck race for #1 for the weekend. My reasoning for this is because of the TV ads, they do hit the target demographic. The also ran for the weekend has got to be Disney's Teacher's Pet opening on 2027 screens this animated kids flick looks to be the dog of bunch. Woof! $6M tops :)
Movie Predictions for Jan 16-18
| |Movie | |Est. BO in $M | | % Change | | # of Screens | | Est PSA | | Prior PSA | |
| Along Came Polly | 14.9 | na | 2984 | 5000 | New |
| Torque | 14.8 | na | 2463 | 6000 | New |
| Big Fish | 7.79 | 45 | 2514 | 3100 | 5740 |
| Lord of the Rings 3 | 6.6 | 45 | 3003 | 2200 | 4022 |
| Cold Mountain | 6.16 | 35 | 2802 | 2200 | 3423 |
| Disney's Teacher's Pet | 6.0 | na | 2027 | 3000 | New |
| Cheaper by the Dozen | 6.0 | 45 | 3025 | 2000 | 3629 |
| Something's Gotta Give | 4.2 | 35 | 2502 | 1700 | 2686 |
| My Baby's Daddy | 3.8 | 50 | 1448 | 2600 | 5216 |
| Chasing Liberty | 2.9 | 50 | 2400 | 1200 | 2533 |
| Paycheck | 1.8 | 50 | 1984 | 900 | 1863 |
First off, Thank you for stopping by! The winter season starts, the Holiday bonanza is over... another poor time of the year for movie box office receipts is now upon us. I suppose we shall see... Prediction time.... Hopefully this weekend I'll do a little better than my last attempt. :) The big question for me this weekend is: Will Big Fish unseat Lord of the Rings 3 for the box office crown this weekend? Expanding from 125 screens to 2406, Big Fish the Tim Burton flick has a very good chance of dethroning the King. The expansion comes after a impressive limited run, in which last weekend it actually raised it's Per Screen Average a healthy 25%. Strong Word of Mouth indicates that the public is looking for this film. I'm not expecting the usual 80-90% drop in PSA for this expansion a more moderate 70-75% should see this movie bring in approximately $13M. There is the outside chance though it could do even better, upwards of $16M though I think that's a little optimistic.
Chasing Liberty, the Mandy Moore chick/date flick also opens this weekend to 2400 screens. I'm not terribly fond of her nor any of her movies so based on her last one "How to Deal" which bombed to a dismal $5.8M opening on a similar number of screens, I'll give this one a slightly better opening $9M. The only competition this movie has is "Mona Lisa Smile" which is entering it's 4th weekend so that shouldn't pose too much of a threat.
My Baby's Daddy is the final flick opening on 1447 screens this weekend. The marketing campaign looks to be targeted for a family fun flick. I dunno this may be a case of trying to be too many things for too many people and not succeeding in any of them. It looks to me like a urbanized "3 Men and a Baby" I'll venture a $7M opening followed by quickly disappearing to oblivion.
Predictions for Jan 9-11
| |Movie | |Est. BO in $M | | % Change | | # of Screens | | Est PSA | | Prior PSA | |
| Lord of the Rings 3 | 13.4 | - 50% | 3532 | 3800 | 7610 |
| Big Fish | 13.2 | - 75% | 2406 | 5500 | 20355 |
| Cheaper by the Dozen | 10.5 | - 50% | 3283 | 3200 | 6545 |
| Chasing Liberty | 9.6 | na | 2400 | 4000 | New |
| Cold Mountain | 8.3 | - 30% | 2302 | 3600 | 5225 |
| My Baby's Daddy | 7.2 | na | 1447 | 5000 | New |
| Something's Gotta Give | 6.6 | - 45% | 2876 | 2300 | 4168 |
| Paycheck | 5.0 | - 50% | 2762 | 1800 | 3561 |
| Mona Lisa Smile | 3.8 | - 50% | 2500 | 1500 | 3058 |
| Calendar Girls | 3.7 | - 35% | 957 | 3900 | 5955 |
A Happy New Year to all! Oops I'm a few days late... oh well, shit happens
Seeing as there was only one movie opening wide last weekend (Calendar Girls) I never bothered to post any predictions soo I'll lament the fact that "I suck". The only good news about my December 26-28 predictions was that I picked approximately the order of finish for the weekend. So lessee Lord of the Rings 3 est $59M, actual $50M. Cheaper by the Dozen... Wow was I ever out to lunch on this one $15M predicted, $28M opening. Something's Gotta Give, strong Word of Mouth so it actually increased over the holiday weekend to a impressive $14M. Cold Mountain predicted 10M, actual $14M. My darkhorse pick of Paycheck was the only thing I was half assed close to being right on predicted $12M, vs an actual of $13M. Even Peter Pan managed $11M. I'm sure you get the idea... strong weekend for everything.
So without further ado I'll post last weekends actuals, and look for this weekends predictions as soon as Theatre counts are available (Thursday / Friday am)
Weekend of Jan 2-4 actuals
| |Movie | |Actual BO in $M | | % Change | | # of Screens | | Actual PSA | | Prior PSA | |
| Lord of the Rings 3 | 28.1 | - 45% | 3703 | 7610 | 13664 |
| Cheaper by the Dozen | 21.6 | - 22% | 3307 | 6545 | 8355 |
| Something's Gotta Give | 11.7 | - 19% | 2808 | 4168 | 5100 |
| Cold Mountain | 11.6 | - 23% | 2216 | 5225 | 6737 |
| Paycheck | 9.8 | - 27% | 2762 | 3561 | 4874 |
| Peter Pan | 8.8 | - 21% | 2813 | 3135 | 3960 |
| Mona Lisa Smile | 8.3 | - 28% | 2714 | 3058 | 4240 |
| The Last Samurai | 7.3 | - 6% | 2401 | 3071 | 3256 |
| Calendar Girls | 4.4 | - 37% | 745 | 5955 | 9441 |
| Bad Santa | 2.9 | - 36% | 1710 | 1717 | 2646 |
| Big Fish | 2.5 | + 23% | 125 | 20355 | 16562 |
The increase in Per Seat Average for Big Fish makes this look very promising for the upcoming weekend's wide expansion. Positve WOM is having an effect.
Yay, no more messing with <table>, <tr>, <td> tags etc. Cascading Style Sheets (css) rock my world :) Gracias to Owen Briggs, glish.com, brainjar.com, tantek.com, alistapart.com and of course www.w3.org for making it all make sense.
