My god, What on earth are you doing here?
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Seeing as I can't seem to find a whole lot of upcoming predictions for this long holiday weekend (well for the US anyhow), I figured I'd take a stab at em :)
First off last weekend. I managed to be half assed close with my 34.6M guess for Cat in the Hat actually was only 38M. I'm expecting a fair dropoff this week due to poor word of mouth. Again Elf exceeded my expectations, strong WOM. Gothika I was under on as well 16.6 predicted vs 19M actual. Guess that proves thrillers etc are still in vogue.
For this week I'm predicting Haunted Mansion to Rule the Box office opening on 3122 screens should scare up enough fans to net a $42M take for Wed-Sun. I'm figuring Cat will drop to #2 maybe $25M, Ron Howard's The Missing opens on 2756 screens, I'm a little hesitant on this one seeing as it's a western eww... and no really big name stars. My guess is for a shooting start of $17M, though it could open a lot lower if it isn't that good. Elf should come in 4th with around $16M. 5th place is my darkhorse guesstimate of $15M for Bad Santa the black comedy starring Billy Bob Thorton opening on 2005 screens. Reviews have been strong for this comedy and it's my kind of movie so... :P Lastly we have Timeline, hmm... no buzz, no hype, no ads = no box office, in my humble opinion. $7M tops, I may have to eat my words but, such is life, at least they are mine to flavour with.... Till next time :)
Movie Predictions for the weekend of Nov 28-30. (NOTE: This is the weekend estimate not including Wed, Thurs)
| |Movie | | Est BO in $M | | % dropoff | | # of Screens | | Est PSA | | Prior PSA | |
| Haunted Mansion | 31.2 | na | 3122 | 10000 | new |
| Cat In the Hat | 19.0 | 50 | 3467 | 5500 | 11065 |
| The Missing | 13.7 | na | 2756 | 5000 | new |
| Elf | 12.8 | 30 | 3381 | 3800 | 5535 |
| Bad Santa | 12.1 | na | 2005 | 6000 | new |
| Gothika | 9.5 | 50 | 2382 | 4000 | 8097 |
| Master & Commander | 7.8 | 40 | 2703 | 2900 | 4906 |
| Timeline | 5.4 | na | 2687 | 2000 | new |
| Love Actually | 6.2 | 30 | 1714 | 3600 | 5115 |
| Matrix Revolutions | 2.7 | 50 | 2055 | 1300 | 2325 |
| Brother Bear | 2.7 | 30 | 2035 | 1300 | 1853 |
| Looney Tunes BIA | 1.9 | 40 | 2135 | 900 | 1452 |
| Scary Movie 3 | 2.3 | 40 | 2359 | 1000 | 1329 |
| Radio | 1.1 | 35 | 1101 | 1000 | 1360 |
| Mystic River | 1.0 | 35 | 775 | 1200 | 1613 |
Well the new Movie predictions for last weekend turned out to be fairly close, though I missed badly on just how strong Elf turned out to be *shrugs*. Master & Commander with a $8096 Per Screen Avg vs my $8000 predicted. Probably not anywhere near the #'s that the studios were hoping for as this Movie cost more than $150M to make... ouch can you say Waterworld. Looney Tunes $3209 actual vs $4000 predicted, yeash even worse than my low prediction. I Guess the Toons just aren't popular anymore. Oh well on to this weeks... Cat in the Hat, Huge, Huge marketing campaign um Mike Myers as the Cat... He doesn't appeal to me in much of anything Wayne's world was about the only thing I've ever liked him in. All the Austin Powers movies I passed on... So I'm not your typical moviegoer I guess. I'm guessing a moderate $34M opening with the possiblity of it being a $45M opening, hows that for some hedging. I can't seem to get a read on this movie at all. Gothika, Thriller starring Halle Berry yummy my guess $15-17M. Horror/thrillers have done extremely well this year so no reason for it to stop now :)
Movie Predictions for the weekend of Nov 21-23.
| Movie | Est BO in $M | % dropoff | # of Screens | Per Screen Avg. | Prior PSA |
| Cat In the Hat | 34.6 | na | 3463 | 10000 | New |
| Gothika | 16.6 | na | 2382 | 7000 | New |
| Master & Commander | 16.1 | 35 | 3101 | 5200 | 8096 |
| Elf | 15.8 | 40 | 3381 | 4700 | 7786 |
| Love Actually | 8.1 | 35 | 1687 | 4800 | 7390 |
| Matrix Revolutions | 7.25 | 50 | 3024 | 2400 | 4687 |
| Brother Bear | 6.9 | 40 | 2885 | 2400 | 3978 |
| Looney Tunes BIA | 5.5 | 40 | 2903 | 1900 | 3209 |
| Scary Movie 3 | 2.8 | 40 | 2359 | 1200 | 2062 |
| Radio | 2.5 | 35 | 1925 | 1300 | 1990 |
| Mystic River | 1.6 | 35 | 1250 | 1300 | 2093 |
Last weekends predictions were so-so, over on Matrix Revolutions by some $18M bad, bad Word of Mouth. Seems I'm not the only one disappointed by the "final" installment. Elf surprised me a bit with a strong $31M opening. The rest of the field posted stronger #'s than predicted... I wonder if that was due to changing movie viewing decision at the last minute from Matrix Revolutions to something else.
For this weeks movies the question is how big will Master & Commander actually be? I've seen predictions a fair bit higher than mine. How much will Matrix Revolutions drop off this weekend, my hunch is substancially. Is there any demand out there for the Looney Tunes franchise? Will the Adults be dragging their kids out to this or something more like Elf? The weeks final new Movie Tupac Resurrection looks... well... It's not my cup of tea, supposedly a new song from it which should probably help it out. Its going to need all the help it can get.
Movie Predictions for the weekend of Nov 14-16.
| Movie | Est BO in $M | % dropoff | # of Screens | Per Screen Avg. | Prior PSA |
| Master & Commander | 24.8 | na | 3101 | 8000 | New |
| Elf | 20.5 | 35 | 3381 | 6060 | 9323 |
| Matrix Revolutions | 19.2 | 60 | 3502 | 5500 | 13842 |
| Looney Tunes BIA | 11.6 | na | 2903 | 4000 | New |
| Love Actually | 10.6 | 25 | 1177 | 9000 | 11955 |
| Brother Bear | 8.32 | 55 | 3030 | 2750 | 6114 |
| Scary Movie 3 | 4.88 | 50 | 2960 | 1650 | 3288 |
| Radio | 3.72 | 40 | 2416 | 1540 | 2566 |
| Mystic River | 3.49 | 25 | 1550 | 2250 | 3027 |
| Tupac Resurrection | 3.2 | na | 801 | 4000 | New |
| Movie | Est BO in $M | # of Screens | Per Screen Avg. |
| Matrix Revolutions | 66.6 | 3505 | 19000 |
| Elf | 23.36 | 3337 | 7000 |
| Brother Bear | 12.12 | 3030 | 4000 |
| Scary Movie 3 | 8.45 | 3288 | 2570 |
| Radio | 6.18 | 2811 | 2200 |
| Love Actually | 5.7 | 576 | 10000 |
| Mystic River | 4.743 | 1581 | 3000 |
| Runaway Jury | 3.818 | 2133 | 1790 |
| Texas Chainsaw Massacre | 3.45 | 2378 | 1450 |
| Kill Bill | 2.185 | 1681 | 1300 |
| School of Rock | 1.932 | 1982 | 975 |
| Human Stain | 1.087 | 187 | 5816 |
Yay, no more messing with <table>, <tr>, <td> tags etc. Cascading Style Sheets (css) rock my world :) Gracias to Owen Briggs, glish.com, brainjar.com, tantek.com, alistapart.com and of course www.w3.org for making it all make sense.
